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Houston Dynamo vs New York Red Bulls — Major League Soccer 2026

Houston Dynamo
Houston Dynamo
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
New York Red Bulls
New York Red Bulls
3/3/2024Major League SoccerMajor League Soccer · Round 3Shell Energy Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Houston Dynamo43%
×Draw25%
New York Red Bulls32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Houston Dynamo
1.50
New York Red Bulls
1.27

Houston Dynamo creates 18% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 22 away

creates per match

Houston Dynamo
1.39
New York Red Bulls
1.28

allows per match

Houston Dynamo
1.27
New York Red Bulls
1.62

finishing

Houston Dynamo-0.10scores less
New York Red Bulls-0.33scores less

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Houston Dynamo ↓

New York Red Bulls →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Houston Dynamo or draw
68%
Houston Dynamo or New York Red Bulls
75%
Draw or New York Red Bulls
57%

Winning margin

Houston Dynamo wins by 2+
21%
New York Red Bulls wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Houston Dynamo 1+ goals
78%
Houston Dynamo 2+ goals
44%
Houston Dynamo 3+ goals
19%
New York Red Bulls 1+ goals
72%
New York Red Bulls 2+ goals
36%
New York Red Bulls 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Houston Dynamo (draw refunded)
57%
New York Red Bulls (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Houston Dynamo at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.27 · 21 matches

New York Red Bulls away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.62 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Houston Dynamo attack 1.39 + New York Red Bulls defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.50

New York Red Bulls attack 1.28 + Houston Dynamo defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Houston Dynamo scores more
43%
level
25%
New York Red Bulls scores more
32%

Houston Dynamo at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Houston Dynamo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Major League Soccer: Houston Dynamo 1–2 New York Red Bulls

New York Red Bulls beat Houston Dynamo 2-1 in Major League Soccer on March 3, 2024.

The match was played at Shell Energy Stadium in Houston, Texas.