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New York Red Bulls vs FC Cincinnati — Major League Soccer 2026

New York Red Bulls
New York Red Bulls
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
FC Cincinnati
FC Cincinnati
10/4/2025Major League SoccerMajor League Soccer · Round 33Sports Illustrated Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

New York Red Bulls46%
×Draw23%
FC Cincinnati31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

New York Red Bulls
1.75
FC Cincinnati
1.41

New York Red Bulls creates 24% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

creates per match

New York Red Bulls
1.84
FC Cincinnati
1.33

allows per match

New York Red Bulls
1.49
FC Cincinnati
1.65

finishing

New York Red Bulls+0.05on par
FC Cincinnati+0.35scores more

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

New York Red Bulls ↓

FC Cincinnati →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

New York Red Bulls or draw
69%
New York Red Bulls or FC Cincinnati
77%
Draw or FC Cincinnati
54%

Winning margin

New York Red Bulls wins by 2+
24%
FC Cincinnati wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

New York Red Bulls 1+ goals
83%
New York Red Bulls 2+ goals
52%
New York Red Bulls 3+ goals
25%
FC Cincinnati 1+ goals
76%
FC Cincinnati 2+ goals
41%
FC Cincinnati 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

New York Red Bulls (draw refunded)
59%
FC Cincinnati (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

New York Red Bulls at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.49 · 19 matches

FC Cincinnati away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.65 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

New York Red Bulls attack 1.84 + FC Cincinnati defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.75

FC Cincinnati attack 1.33 + New York Red Bulls defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

New York Red Bulls scores more
46%
level
23%
FC Cincinnati scores more
31%

New York Red Bulls at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "New York Red Bulls will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: New York Red Bulls vs FC Cincinnati

FC Cincinnati beat New York Red Bulls 1-0 in Major League Soccer on October 4, 2025.

The match was played at Sports Illustrated Stadium in Harrison.