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FC Cincinnati vs New York Red Bulls — Major League Soccer 2026

FC Cincinnati
FC Cincinnati
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
New York Red Bulls
New York Red Bulls
2/23/2025Major League SoccerMajor League Soccer · Round 1TQL Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

FC Cincinnati43%
×Draw24%
New York Red Bulls33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Cincinnati
1.65
New York Red Bulls
1.40

FC Cincinnati creates 18% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 22 away

creates per match

FC Cincinnati
1.68
New York Red Bulls
1.28

allows per match

FC Cincinnati
1.52
New York Red Bulls
1.62

finishing

FC Cincinnati+0.16scores more
New York Red Bulls-0.33scores less

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Cincinnati ↓

New York Red Bulls →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

FC Cincinnati or draw
67%
FC Cincinnati or New York Red Bulls
76%
Draw or New York Red Bulls
57%

Winning margin

FC Cincinnati wins by 2+
22%
New York Red Bulls wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

FC Cincinnati 1+ goals
81%
FC Cincinnati 2+ goals
49%
FC Cincinnati 3+ goals
23%
New York Red Bulls 1+ goals
75%
New York Red Bulls 2+ goals
41%
New York Red Bulls 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

FC Cincinnati (draw refunded)
57%
New York Red Bulls (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Cincinnati at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.52 · 19 matches

New York Red Bulls away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.62 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Cincinnati attack 1.68 + New York Red Bulls defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.65

New York Red Bulls attack 1.28 + FC Cincinnati defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

FC Cincinnati scores more
43%
level
24%
New York Red Bulls scores more
33%

FC Cincinnati at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "FC Cincinnati will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Major League Soccer: FC Cincinnati 1–0 New York Red Bulls

FC Cincinnati beat New York Red Bulls 1-0 in Major League Soccer on February 23, 2025.

The match was played at TQL Stadium in Cincinnati.