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New York RB III vs Morris Elite — USL League Two 2018

New York RB III
New York RB III
FT
4 – 0
Morris Elite
Morris Elite
6/23/2021USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 34Red Bull Academy Training Field 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

New York RB III69%
×Draw18%
Morris Elite14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

New York RB III
2.41
Morris Elite
0.97

New York RB III creates 148% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 39 away

creates per match

New York RB III
2.09
Morris Elite
1.13

allows per match

New York RB III
0.82
Morris Elite
2.72

finishing

New York RB III+0.00on par
Morris Elite+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

New York RB III ↓

Morris Elite →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

New York RB III or draw
86%
New York RB III or Morris Elite
82%
Draw or Morris Elite
31%

Winning margin

New York RB III wins by 2+
46%
Morris Elite wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

New York RB III 1+ goals
91%
New York RB III 2+ goals
69%
New York RB III 3+ goals
43%
Morris Elite 1+ goals
62%
Morris Elite 2+ goals
25%
Morris Elite 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

New York RB III (draw refunded)
84%
Morris Elite (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

New York RB III at home — creates 2.09, concedes 0.82 · 11 matches

Morris Elite away — creates 1.13, concedes 2.72 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

New York RB III attack 2.09 + Morris Elite defence 2.72 → ÷2 → 2.41

Morris Elite attack 1.13 + New York RB III defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

New York RB III scores more
69%
level
18%
Morris Elite scores more
14%

New York RB III at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "New York RB III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: New York RB III 4–0 Morris Elite

New York RB III beat Morris Elite 4-0 in USL League Two on June 23, 2021.

The match was played at Red Bull Academy Training Field 1 in Whippany, New Jersey.