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Morris Elite vs New York RB III — USL League Two 2018

Morris Elite
Morris Elite
FT
0 – 0
New York RB III
New York RB III
6/27/2021USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 39Gordy LeMatty Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Morris Elite24%
×Draw26%
New York RB III50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Morris Elite
0.99
New York RB III
1.54

New York RB III creates 56% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 14 away

creates per match

Morris Elite
0.90
New York RB III
1.07

allows per match

Morris Elite
2.00
New York RB III
1.07

finishing

Morris Elite+0.00on par
New York RB III+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Morris Elite ↓

New York RB III →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Morris Elite or draw
50%
Morris Elite or New York RB III
74%
Draw or New York RB III
76%

Winning margin

Morris Elite wins by 2+
9%
New York RB III wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Morris Elite 1+ goals
63%
Morris Elite 2+ goals
26%
Morris Elite 3+ goals
8%
New York RB III 1+ goals
79%
New York RB III 2+ goals
45%
New York RB III 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Morris Elite (draw refunded)
33%
New York RB III (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Morris Elite at home — creates 0.90, concedes 2.00 · 39 matches

New York RB III away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.07 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Morris Elite attack 0.90 + New York RB III defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.99

New York RB III attack 1.07 + Morris Elite defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Morris Elite scores more
24%
level
26%
New York RB III scores more
50%

New York RB III at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "New York RB III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Morris Elite vs New York RB III

Morris Elite and New York RB III drew 0-0 in USL League Two on June 27, 2021.

The match was played at Gordy LeMatty Field in Union, New Jersey.