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New York RB III vs FC Motown — USL League Two 2018

New York RB III
New York RB III
FT
1 – 1
FC Motown
FC Motown
7/11/2021USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 51Red Bull Academy Training Field 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

New York RB III50%
×Draw25%
FC Motown25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

New York RB III
1.61
FC Motown
1.05

New York RB III creates 53% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 7 away

creates per match

New York RB III
2.09
FC Motown
1.29

allows per match

New York RB III
0.82
FC Motown
1.14

finishing

New York RB III+0.00on par
FC Motown+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

New York RB III ↓

FC Motown →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

New York RB III or draw
75%
New York RB III or FC Motown
75%
Draw or FC Motown
50%

Winning margin

New York RB III wins by 2+
26%
FC Motown wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

New York RB III 1+ goals
80%
New York RB III 2+ goals
48%
New York RB III 3+ goals
22%
FC Motown 1+ goals
65%
FC Motown 2+ goals
28%
FC Motown 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

New York RB III (draw refunded)
67%
FC Motown (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

New York RB III at home — creates 2.09, concedes 0.82 · 11 matches

FC Motown away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

New York RB III attack 2.09 + FC Motown defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.61

FC Motown attack 1.29 + New York RB III defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

New York RB III scores more
50%
level
25%
FC Motown scores more
25%

New York RB III at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "New York RB III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: New York RB III vs FC Motown

New York RB III and FC Motown drew 1-1 in USL League Two on July 11, 2021.

The match was played at Red Bull Academy Training Field 1 in Whippany, New Jersey.