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FC Motown vs New York RB III — USL League Two 2018

FC Motown
FC Motown
FT
1 – 0
New York RB III
New York RB III
5/17/2021USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 5MSU Soccer Park at Pittser Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

FC Motown39%
×Draw29%
New York RB III32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Motown
1.18
New York RB III
1.04

FC Motown creates 13% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 14 away

creates per match

FC Motown
1.29
New York RB III
1.07

allows per match

FC Motown
1.00
New York RB III
1.07

finishing

FC Motown+0.00on par
New York RB III+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Motown ↓

New York RB III →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

FC Motown or draw
68%
FC Motown or New York RB III
71%
Draw or New York RB III
61%

Winning margin

FC Motown wins by 2+
17%
New York RB III wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

FC Motown 1+ goals
69%
FC Motown 2+ goals
33%
FC Motown 3+ goals
12%
New York RB III 1+ goals
65%
New York RB III 2+ goals
28%
New York RB III 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

FC Motown (draw refunded)
55%
New York RB III (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Motown at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

New York RB III away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.07 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Motown attack 1.29 + New York RB III defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.18

New York RB III attack 1.07 + FC Motown defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

FC Motown scores more
39%
level
29%
New York RB III scores more
32%

FC Motown at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "FC Motown will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Motown vs New York RB III

FC Motown beat New York RB III 1-0 in USL League Two on May 17, 2021.

The match was played at MSU Soccer Park at Pittser Field in Montclair, New Jersey.