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New York City FC vs New York Red Bulls — Major League Soccer 2026

New York City FC
New York City FC
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
New York Red Bulls
New York Red Bulls
M. Moralez 50'
A. Martinez 13'
5/17/2025Major League SoccerMajor League Soccer · Round 14Citi Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 22+ matches

New York City FC45%
×Draw25%
New York Red Bulls30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

New York City FC
1.60
New York Red Bulls
1.27

New York City FC creates 26% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 22 away

creates per match

New York City FC
1.58
New York Red Bulls
1.28

allows per match

New York City FC
1.27
New York Red Bulls
1.62

finishing

New York City FC+0.42scores more
New York Red Bulls-0.33scores less

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

New York City FC ↓

New York Red Bulls →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

New York City FC or draw
70%
New York City FC or New York Red Bulls
75%
Draw or New York Red Bulls
55%

Winning margin

New York City FC wins by 2+
23%
New York Red Bulls wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

New York City FC 1+ goals
80%
New York City FC 2+ goals
47%
New York City FC 3+ goals
22%
New York Red Bulls 1+ goals
72%
New York Red Bulls 2+ goals
36%
New York Red Bulls 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

New York City FC (draw refunded)
60%
New York Red Bulls (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

New York City FC at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.27 · 23 matches

New York Red Bulls away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.62 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

New York City FC attack 1.58 + New York Red Bulls defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.60

New York Red Bulls attack 1.28 + New York City FC defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

New York City FC scores more
45%
level
25%
New York Red Bulls scores more
30%

New York City FC at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "New York City FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
M. MoralezNew York City FCNew York City FC · M
7.9

Match Events

13'
A. Martinez↳ J. Haak
30'
Julián Fernández
42'
Noah Eile
50'
M. Moralez↳ A. Martinez
54'
Sean Nealis
57'
C. Harper← D. Gjengaar
57'
W. Bogacz← M. Sofo
61'
A. Ojeda← J. Fernandez
61'
J. Shore← A. Perea
61'
M. Ilenic← T. Gray
62'
Kyle Duncan
67'
W. Carmona← P. Stroud
76'
N. Cavallo← B. Risa
76'
M. Bakrar← H. Wolf
77'
J. Hall← E. Forsberg

Possession

36%New

Shots

13New

Pass accuracy

45%New

Statistics

NewNew
Overview
36%Possession64%
13Total Shots10
1.93Expected Goals (xG)0.40
4Corners6
12Fouls16
Shots
13Total Shots10
3On Target1
7Off Target7
3Blocked2
9Inside Box5
4Outside Box5
Passing
36%Possession64%
284Total Passes510
197Accurate Passes426
69%Pass Accuracy84%
Goalkeeping
1Saves1
-0.52Goals Prevented-0.52
Discipline
12Fouls16
1Yellow Cards3
0Offsides1

Major League Soccer: New York City FC 2–0 New York Red Bulls

New York City FC beat New York Red Bulls 2-0 in Major League Soccer on May 17, 2025.

Goals: A. Martinez (13'), M. Moralez (50').

New York Red Bulls controlled possession (64%) and registered 10 shots to 13.

The match was played at Citi Field in Flushing.