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New York City FC vs New York Red Bulls — Major League Soccer 2026

New York City FC
New York City FC
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
New York Red Bulls
New York Red Bullsadvanced
D. Vanzeir 25'
F. Carballo 16'
11/23/2024Major League SoccerMajor League Soccer · MLS Cup - Conference Semi-finalsCiti Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 22+ matches

New York City FC45%
×Draw25%
New York Red Bulls30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

New York City FC
1.60
New York Red Bulls
1.27

New York City FC creates 26% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 22 away

creates per match

New York City FC
1.58
New York Red Bulls
1.28

allows per match

New York City FC
1.27
New York Red Bulls
1.62

finishing

New York City FC+0.42scores more
New York Red Bulls-0.33scores less

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

New York City FC ↓

New York Red Bulls →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

New York City FC or draw
70%
New York City FC or New York Red Bulls
75%
Draw or New York Red Bulls
55%

Winning margin

New York City FC wins by 2+
23%
New York Red Bulls wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

New York City FC 1+ goals
80%
New York City FC 2+ goals
47%
New York City FC 3+ goals
22%
New York Red Bulls 1+ goals
72%
New York Red Bulls 2+ goals
36%
New York Red Bulls 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

New York City FC (draw refunded)
60%
New York Red Bulls (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

New York City FC at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.27 · 23 matches

New York Red Bulls away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.62 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

New York City FC attack 1.58 + New York Red Bulls defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.60

New York Red Bulls attack 1.28 + New York City FC defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

New York City FC scores more
45%
level
25%
New York Red Bulls scores more
30%

New York City FC at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "New York City FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

31
C. CoronelNew York Red BullsNew York Red Bulls · G
8.3

Match Events

16'
F. Carballo↳ D. Vanzeir
25'
D. Vanzeir
28'
Daniel Edelman
33'
James Sands
39'
Kevin O'Toole
62'
P. Stroud← F. Carballo
62'
N. Eile← S. Nealis
73'
A. Perea← H. Wolf
82'
A. Ojeda← M. Ilenič
90'
J. Fernández← K. OToole
90+7'
Elias Manoel← L. Morgan
90'
S. Ngoma← D. Vanzeir
90'
W. Carmona← E. Forsberg

Possession

71%New

Shots

25New

Pass accuracy

60%New

Statistics

NewNew
Overview
71%Possession29%
25Total Shots9
2.80Expected Goals (xG)0.88
13Corners5
9Fouls18
Shots
25Total Shots9
6On Target3
10Off Target1
9Blocked5
17Inside Box7
8Outside Box2
Passing
71%Possession29%
565Total Passes230
444Accurate Passes123
79%Pass Accuracy53%
Goalkeeping
1Saves7
2.01Goals Prevented2.01
Discipline
9Fouls18
2Yellow Cards1
2Offsides0

Match Recap: New York City FC vs New York Red Bulls

New York Red Bulls beat New York City FC 2-0 in Major League Soccer on November 23, 2024.

Goals: F. Carballo (16'), D. Vanzeir (25').

New York City FC controlled possession (71%) and registered 25 shots to 9.

The match was played at Citi Field in New York, New York.