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New Star vs Canon — Elite One 2019

New Star
New Star
FT
0 – 1
Canon
Canon
F. Moukete 59'
4/25/2021Elite OneElite One · Round 9Stade Annexe de la Reunification

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

New Star27%
×Draw27%
Canon46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

New Star
0.98
Canon
1.38

Canon creates 41% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 87 away

creates per match

New Star
1.03
Canon
1.18

allows per match

New Star
1.58
Canon
0.94

finishing

New Star+0.00on par
Canon+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

New Star ↓

Canon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–113%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

New Star or draw
54%
New Star or Canon
73%
Draw or Canon
73%

Winning margin

New Star wins by 2+
10%
Canon wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

New Star 1+ goals
62%
New Star 2+ goals
26%
New Star 3+ goals
8%
Canon 1+ goals
75%
Canon 2+ goals
40%
Canon 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

New Star (draw refunded)
37%
Canon (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

New Star at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.58 · 33 matches

Canon away — creates 1.18, concedes 0.94 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

New Star attack 1.03 + Canon defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.98

Canon attack 1.18 + New Star defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

New Star scores more
27%
level
27%
Canon scores more
46%

Canon at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Canon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

59'
F. Moukete

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: New Star vs Canon

Canon beat New Star 1-0 in Elite One on April 25, 2021.

Goals: F. Moukete (59').

The match was played at Stade Annexe de la Reunification in Douala.