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Canon vs New Star — Elite One 2019

Canon
Canon
FT
2 – 0
New Star
New Star
9/4/2016Elite OneElite One · Round 33Centre sportif académique de Mbankomo ( Mbankomo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Canon53%
×Draw28%
New Star20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Canon
1.39
New Star
0.73

Canon creates 90% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 37 away

creates per match

Canon
1.24
New Star
0.62

allows per match

Canon
0.84
New Star
1.54

finishing

Canon+0.00on par
New Star+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Canon ↓

New Star →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Canon or draw
80%
Canon or New Star
72%
Draw or New Star
47%

Winning margin

Canon wins by 2+
26%
New Star wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Canon 1+ goals
75%
Canon 2+ goals
40%
Canon 3+ goals
16%
New Star 1+ goals
52%
New Star 2+ goals
17%
New Star 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Canon (draw refunded)
73%
New Star (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Canon at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.84 · 90 matches

New Star away — creates 0.62, concedes 1.54 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Canon attack 1.24 + New Star defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.39

New Star attack 0.62 + Canon defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Canon scores more
53%
level
28%
New Star scores more
20%

Canon at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Canon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Canon vs New Star

Canon beat New Star 2-0 in Elite One on September 4, 2016.

The match was played at Centre sportif académique de Mbankomo ( Mbankomo).