New Star vs APEJES Academy — Elite One 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 37+ matches
New Star34%
APEJES Academy39%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 37 home / 67 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under56
- Over44
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No51
- Yes49
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
New Star ↓
Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
New Star at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.51 · 37 matches
APEJES Academy away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.24 · 67 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
New Star attack 1.08 + APEJES Academy defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.16
APEJES Academy attack 1.01 + New Star defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.26
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 39%?"
APEJES Academy at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 39% does not mean "APEJES Academy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Cotonsport
Dragon de YaoundéAPEJES Academy
Tonnerre
Union Douala
Colombe
Avion Academy
PWDNew Star
Feutcheu
Stade Renard
UMS de Loum
Young Sport Academy
Fortuna Mfou
Eding Sport
Les Astres
Unisport Bafang
Fovu ClubIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
New Star host APEJES Academy on Sunday, 18 July 2021 at 14:00. The match is part of the Elite One 2019/2020 season.
Elite One: New Star 2–2 APEJES Academy
New Star and APEJES Academy drew 2-2 in Elite One on July 18, 2021.
Goals: ? (16', 21', 45+1', 90+2').
The match was played at Stade Annexe de la Reunification in Douala.