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APEJES Academy vs New Star — Elite One 2019

APEJES Academy
APEJES Academy
FT
2 – 0
New Star
New Star
3/8/2019Elite OneElite One · Round 5Stade Omnisport Ahmadou Ahidjo (Yaoundé)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

APEJES Academy50%
×Draw27%
New Star23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

APEJES Academy
1.42
New Star
0.86

APEJES Academy creates 65% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 32 away

creates per match

APEJES Academy
1.20
New Star
0.66

allows per match

APEJES Academy
1.06
New Star
1.63

finishing

APEJES Academy+0.00on par
New Star+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

APEJES Academy ↓

New Star →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

APEJES Academy or draw
77%
APEJES Academy or New Star
73%
Draw or New Star
50%

Winning margin

APEJES Academy wins by 2+
25%
New Star wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

APEJES Academy 1+ goals
76%
APEJES Academy 2+ goals
41%
APEJES Academy 3+ goals
17%
New Star 1+ goals
58%
New Star 2+ goals
21%
New Star 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

APEJES Academy (draw refunded)
69%
New Star (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

APEJES Academy at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.06 · 70 matches

New Star away — creates 0.66, concedes 1.63 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

APEJES Academy attack 1.20 + New Star defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.42

New Star attack 0.66 + APEJES Academy defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

APEJES Academy scores more
50%
level
27%
New Star scores more
23%

APEJES Academy at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "APEJES Academy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

APEJES Academy 2 – 0 New Star

APEJES Academy beat New Star 2-0 in Elite One on March 8, 2019.

The match was played at Stade Omnisport Ahmadou Ahidjo (Yaoundé).