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New Project vs Balvu — 1. Liga 2026

New Project
New Project
FT
2 – 1
Balvu
Balvu
8/4/20191. Liga1. Liga · Round 14RTU stadions (Rīga (Riga))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

New Project84%
×Draw9%
Balvu7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

New Project
4.25
Balvu
1.26

New Project creates 237% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 18 away

creates per match

New Project
1.77
Balvu
0.89

allows per match

New Project
1.62
Balvu
6.72

finishing

New Project+0.00on par
Balvu+0.00on par

Total goals

90%Over
  • Over90
  • Under10

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

New Project ↓

Balvu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–13%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–06%
4–18%
4–25%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 67% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
97%3%2.5
90%10%3.5
77%23%4.5
59%41%

Double chance

New Project or draw
93%
New Project or Balvu
91%
Draw or Balvu
16%

Winning margin

New Project wins by 2+
69%
Balvu wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

New Project 1+ goals
98%
New Project 2+ goals
91%
New Project 3+ goals
76%
Balvu 1+ goals
72%
Balvu 2+ goals
36%
Balvu 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

New Project (draw refunded)
93%
Balvu (draw refunded)
7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

New Project at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.62 · 13 matches

Balvu away — creates 0.89, concedes 6.72 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

New Project attack 1.77 + Balvu defence 6.72 → ÷2 → 4.25

Balvu attack 0.89 + New Project defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 84%?"

New Project scores more
84%
level
9%
Balvu scores more
7%

New Project at 84% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 84% does not mean "New Project will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: New Project vs Balvu

New Project beat Balvu 2-1 in 1. Liga on August 4, 2019.

The match was played at RTU stadions (Rīga (Riga)).