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Balvu vs New Project — 1. Liga 2026

Balvu
Balvu
FT
2 – 1
New Project
New Project
5/4/20191. Liga1. Liga · Round 5Rugāju stadions (Rugāji)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Balvu30%
×Draw20%
New Project50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Balvu
1.83
New Project
2.40

New Project creates 31% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 14 away

creates per match

Balvu
0.73
New Project
0.86

allows per match

Balvu
3.93
New Project
2.93

finishing

Balvu+0.00on par
New Project+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Balvu ↓

New Project →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–28%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

Balvu or draw
50%
Balvu or New Project
80%
Draw or New Project
70%

Winning margin

Balvu wins by 2+
15%
New Project wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Balvu 1+ goals
84%
Balvu 2+ goals
54%
Balvu 3+ goals
28%
New Project 1+ goals
91%
New Project 2+ goals
69%
New Project 3+ goals
42%

Draw no bet

Balvu (draw refunded)
37%
New Project (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Balvu at home — creates 0.73, concedes 3.93 · 15 matches

New Project away — creates 0.86, concedes 2.93 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Balvu attack 0.73 + New Project defence 2.93 → ÷2 → 1.83

New Project attack 0.86 + Balvu defence 3.93 → ÷2 → 2.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Balvu scores more
30%
level
20%
New Project scores more
50%

New Project at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "New Project will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga: Balvu 2–1 New Project

Balvu beat New Project 2-1 in 1. Liga on May 4, 2019.

The match was played at Rugāju stadions (Rugāji).