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New Project vs Auda — 1. Liga 2026

New Project
New Project
FT
0 – 1
Auda
Auda
8/10/20191. Liga1. Liga · Round 15RTU stadions (Rīga (Riga))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

New Project37%
×Draw23%
Auda40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

New Project
1.60
Auda
1.68

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 27 away

creates per match

New Project
1.77
Auda
1.74

allows per match

New Project
1.62
Auda
1.44

finishing

New Project+0.00on par
Auda+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

New Project ↓

Auda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

New Project or draw
60%
New Project or Auda
77%
Draw or Auda
63%

Winning margin

New Project wins by 2+
18%
Auda wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

New Project 1+ goals
80%
New Project 2+ goals
47%
New Project 3+ goals
22%
Auda 1+ goals
81%
Auda 2+ goals
50%
Auda 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

New Project (draw refunded)
48%
Auda (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

New Project at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.62 · 13 matches

Auda away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.44 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

New Project attack 1.77 + Auda defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.60

Auda attack 1.74 + New Project defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

New Project scores more
37%
level
23%
Auda scores more
40%

Auda at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Auda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga: New Project 0–1 Auda

Auda beat New Project 1-0 in 1. Liga on August 10, 2019.

The match was played at RTU stadions (Rīga (Riga)).