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Auda vs New Project — 1. Liga 2026

Auda
Auda
FT
1 – 0
New Project
New Project
5/11/20191. Liga1. Liga · Round 6Ķekavas stadions (Ķekava)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Auda78%
×Draw13%
New Project9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Auda
3.15
New Project
1.02

Auda creates 209% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 14 away

creates per match

Auda
3.36
New Project
0.86

allows per match

Auda
1.18
New Project
2.93

finishing

Auda+0.00on par
New Project+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Auda ↓

New Project →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–15%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–19%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–17%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–1 (9%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Auda or draw
91%
Auda or New Project
87%
Draw or New Project
22%

Winning margin

Auda wins by 2+
59%
New Project wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Auda 1+ goals
96%
Auda 2+ goals
81%
Auda 3+ goals
59%
New Project 1+ goals
64%
New Project 2+ goals
27%
New Project 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Auda (draw refunded)
90%
New Project (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Auda at home — creates 3.36, concedes 1.18 · 28 matches

New Project away — creates 0.86, concedes 2.93 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Auda attack 3.36 + New Project defence 2.93 → ÷2 → 3.15

New Project attack 0.86 + Auda defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Auda scores more
78%
level
13%
New Project scores more
9%

Auda at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Auda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga: Auda 1–0 New Project

Auda beat New Project 1-0 in 1. Liga on May 11, 2019.

The match was played at Ķekavas stadions (Ķekava).