KA Akureyri 1–1 Valur Reykjavik: Result & Stats

KA Akureyri

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Valur Reykjavik

E. Aðalsteinsson 47'

G. Lýdsson 63' (pen)

9/14/2017

Úrvalsdeild · Round 19Akureyrarvöllur (Akureyri)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 96+ matches

KA Akureyri39%

×Draw23%

Valur Reykjavik37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KA AkureyriExpected goals in this matchValur Reykjavik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.62

1.58

KA Akureyri

1.62

Valur Reykjavik

1.58

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 96 home / 99 away

1.68

creates per match

1.86

1.30

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

KA Akureyri

1.68

Valur Reykjavik

1.86

allows per match

KA Akureyri

1.30

Valur Reykjavik

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

KA Akureyri+0.00on par

Valur Reykjavik+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KA Akureyri ↓

Valur Reykjavik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

KA Akureyri or draw

63%

KA Akureyri or Valur Reykjavik

77%

Draw or Valur Reykjavik

61%

Winning margin

KA Akureyri wins by 2+

20%

Valur Reykjavik wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

KA Akureyri 1+ goals

80%

KA Akureyri 2+ goals

48%

KA Akureyri 3+ goals

22%

Valur Reykjavik 1+ goals

79%

Valur Reykjavik 2+ goals

47%

Valur Reykjavik 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

KA Akureyri (draw refunded)

51%

Valur Reykjavik (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KA Akureyri at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.30 · 96 matches

Valur Reykjavik away — creates 1.86, concedes 1.56 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KA Akureyri attack 1.68 + Valur Reykjavik defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.62

Valur Reykjavik attack 1.86 + KA Akureyri defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

KA Akureyri scores more

39%

level

23%

Valur Reykjavik scores more

37%

KA Akureyri at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "KA Akureyri will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'

S. Björnsson← H. Sigurðsson

47'

E. Aðalsteinsson

60'

A. Sigurgeirsson← S. Thorsteinsson

63'

G. LýdssonPenalty

67'

A. Geirsson← N. Bøgild

81'

O. Pétursson← A. Nkumu

81'

D. Acoff← A. Adolphsson