KA Akureyri 2–5 Valur Reykjavik: Result & Stats

KA Akureyri

FT

2 – 5

HT: 1 – 2

Valur Reykjavik

H. Gudmundsson 90'

B. Adalsteinsson 45'

S. Stefansson 86'

A. Skoglund 73'

T. Magnusson 70'

A. Sigurgeirsson 12' (OG)

A. Palsson 10'

6/27/2025

Úrvalsdeild · Round 13Greifavöllurinn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

KA Akureyri46%

×Draw23%

Valur Reykjavik31%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KA AkureyriExpected goals in this matchValur Reykjavik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

1.46

KA Akureyri

1.81

Valur Reykjavik

1.46

KA Akureyri creates 24% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 24 away

1.78

creates per match

1.50

1.43

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

KA Akureyri

1.78

Valur Reykjavik

1.50

allows per match

KA Akureyri

1.43

Valur Reykjavik

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

KA Akureyri+0.00on par

Valur Reykjavik+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KA Akureyri ↓

Valur Reykjavik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

KA Akureyri or draw

69%

KA Akureyri or Valur Reykjavik

77%

Draw or Valur Reykjavik

54%

Winning margin

KA Akureyri wins by 2+

25%

Valur Reykjavik wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

KA Akureyri 1+ goals

84%

KA Akureyri 2+ goals

54%

KA Akureyri 3+ goals

27%

Valur Reykjavik 1+ goals

77%

Valur Reykjavik 2+ goals

43%

Valur Reykjavik 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

KA Akureyri (draw refunded)

59%

Valur Reykjavik (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KA Akureyri at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.43 · 23 matches

Valur Reykjavik away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.83 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KA Akureyri attack 1.78 + Valur Reykjavik defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.81

Valur Reykjavik attack 1.50 + KA Akureyri defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

KA Akureyri scores more

46%

level

23%

Valur Reykjavik scores more

31%

KA Akureyri at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "KA Akureyri will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

T. Magnusson

10'

A. Palsson↳ L. Heimisson

12'

A. SigurgeirssonOwn goal

34'

B. Baldvinsson

45'

B. Adalsteinsson

46'

J. S. Edmundsson← D. Valsson

46'

G. Hrafnkelsson← B. Baldvinsson

59'

M. Romer

64'

J. S. Edmundsson

69'

I. Stole← J. Arnason

69'

A. Skoglund← P. Pedersen

70'

T. Magnusson

73'

A. Skoglund↳ S. Larusson

79'

M. Thordarson← M. Romer

80'

O. Kjartansson← L. Heimisson

80'

J. Palsson← J. Jonsson

83'

V. Kjartansson← A. Sigurgeirsson

85'

S. Stefansson← T. Magnusson

85'

A. Hoti← A. Palsson

86'

S. Stefansson

90'

H. Gudmundsson

KA

Valur

18

Schram

20

Omarsson

11

A

Larusson

4

A

Nakkim

15

Eyjolfsso

6

Antonsson

8

▼

Jonsson

2

⚽

▼

Magnusson

9

▼

Pedersen

17

A

▼

Heimisson

23

⚽

▼

Palsson

12

Tonning

29

▼

Arnason

2

▼

Baldvinss

22

Steingrim

4

Rodri

28

⚽

Gudmundss

25

▼

Valsson

77

⚽

Adalstein

11

🥅

▼

Sigurgeir

10

Steingrim

8

▼

Romer

Manager: Hallgrímur Jónasson

46'▲J. S. Edmundsson←▼D. Valsson

46'▲G. Hrafnkelsson←▼B. Baldvinsson

69'▲I. Stole←▼J. Arnason

79'▲M. Thordarson←▼M. Romer

83'▲V. Kjartansson←▼A. Sigurgeirsson

KA Akureyri substitutes

99Ingolfsson3Gautason7Edmundsson9Kjartansson14Stefansson21Thordarson23Petursson26Stole30Hrafnkelsson

Manager: Srdjan Tufegdzic

69'▲A. Skoglund←▼P. Pedersen

80'▲O. Kjartansson←▼L. Heimisson

80'▲J. Palsson←▼J. Jonsson

85'▲S. Stefansson←▼T. Magnusson

85'▲A. Hoti←▼A. Palsson

Valur Reykjavik substitutes

95Johannesson13Kristjansson14Skoglund16Stefansson19Kjartansson21Palsson30Kjeld33Hoti