KA Akureyri 3–2 Valur Reykjavik: Result & Stats

KA Akureyri

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Valur Reykjavik

D. Hafsteinsson 62'

J. Árnason 44'

Hallgrímur Steingrímsson 6'

B. Sævarsson 65'

P. Pedersen 39'

7/2/2024

Cup · Semi-finalsGreifavöllurinn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

KA Akureyri45%

×Draw20%

Valur Reykjavik34%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KA AkureyriExpected goals in this matchValur Reykjavik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.20

1.90

KA Akureyri

2.20

Valur Reykjavik

1.90

KA Akureyri creates 16% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

2.60

creates per match

2.20

1.60

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

KA Akureyri

2.60

Valur Reykjavik

2.20

allows per match

KA Akureyri

1.60

Valur Reykjavik

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

KA Akureyri+0.00on par

Valur Reykjavik+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes76
No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KA Akureyri ↓

Valur Reykjavik →

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1–04%

1–17%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

58%42%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

KA Akureyri or draw

66%

KA Akureyri or Valur Reykjavik

80%

Draw or Valur Reykjavik

55%

Winning margin

KA Akureyri wins by 2+

26%

Valur Reykjavik wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

KA Akureyri 1+ goals

89%

KA Akureyri 2+ goals

64%

KA Akureyri 3+ goals

37%

Valur Reykjavik 1+ goals

85%

Valur Reykjavik 2+ goals

56%

Valur Reykjavik 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

KA Akureyri (draw refunded)

57%

Valur Reykjavik (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

68%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

KA Akureyri at home — creates 2.60, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

Valur Reykjavik away — creates 2.20, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

KA Akureyri attack 2.60 + Valur Reykjavik defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 2.20

Valur Reykjavik attack 2.20 + KA Akureyri defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 45%?"

KA Akureyri scores more

45%

level

20%

Valur Reykjavik scores more

34%

KA Akureyri at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "KA Akureyri will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

Hallgrímur Steingrímsson

39'

44'

45+2'

62'

62'

65'

68'

G. Unnarsson← T. Haraldsson

71'

O. Omarsson

74'

H. Willard← Á. Sigurgeirsson

80'

A. Pálsson← G. Tryggvason

80'

H. Gunnarsson← B. Sævarsson

85'

D. Hafsteinsson

89'

I. Arnason

90+6'

Hrannar Steingrímsson← J. Árnason

Valur

Schram

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Árnason

Manager: H. Jónasson

74'▲H. Willard←▼Á. Sigurgeirsson

90+6'▲Hrannar Steingrímsson←▼J. Árnason

KA Akureyri substitutes

WillardSteingrímssonBaldurssonAðalsteinssonStøleJajaloSævarsson

Manager: A. Grétarsson

68'▲G. Unnarsson←▼T. Haraldsson

80'▲A. Pálsson←▼G. Tryggvason

80'▲H. Gunnarsson←▼B. Sævarsson

Valur Reykjavik substitutes

UnnarssonPálssonGunnarssonAntonssonPálssonHeimissonÁgústsson