FC Nordsjaelland 1–0 Viborg: Result & Stats

FC Nordsjaelland

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Viborg

J. John 20'

5/26/2016

Superliga · Round 32Right to Dream Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 18+ matches

FC Nordsjaelland45%

×Draw23%

Viborg32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC NordsjaellandExpected goals in this matchViborg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

1.50

FC Nordsjaelland

1.83

Viborg

1.50

FC Nordsjaelland creates 22% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 18 away

2.12

creates per match

1.79

1.20

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

FC Nordsjaelland

2.12

Viborg

1.79

allows per match

FC Nordsjaelland

1.20

Viborg

1.55

-0.03on par

finishing

-0.12scores less than expected

finishing

FC Nordsjaelland-0.03on par

Viborg-0.12scores less

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Nordsjaelland ↓

Viborg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

65%35%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

FC Nordsjaelland or draw

68%

FC Nordsjaelland or Viborg

77%

Draw or Viborg

55%

Winning margin

FC Nordsjaelland wins by 2+

25%

Viborg wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

FC Nordsjaelland 1+ goals

84%

FC Nordsjaelland 2+ goals

54%

FC Nordsjaelland 3+ goals

28%

Viborg 1+ goals

78%

Viborg 2+ goals

44%

Viborg 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

FC Nordsjaelland (draw refunded)

59%

Viborg (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Nordsjaelland at home — creates 2.12, concedes 1.20 · 23 matches

Viborg away — creates 1.79, concedes 1.55 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Nordsjaelland attack 2.12 + Viborg defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.83

Viborg attack 1.79 + FC Nordsjaelland defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

FC Nordsjaelland scores more

45%

level

23%

Viborg scores more

32%

FC Nordsjaelland at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "FC Nordsjaelland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

J. John

68'

G. Fochive← J. Grønning

68'

S. Frederiksen← M. Wichmann

71'

G. Donyoh← D. Moberg-Karlsson

78'

M. Vingaard← C. Tanor

78'

S. Andersen← J. Kamper

90'

D. Oduro← M. Ingvartsen

FC

Viborg

1

2

4

15

20

11

▼

Kamper

13

▼

Grønning

7

▼

12

10

28

16

5

4

22

17

7

24

33

▼

Tanor

12

⚽

John

15

▼

Moberg-Ka

19

▼

Ingvartse

71'▲G. Donyoh←▼D. Moberg-Karlsson

78'▲M. Vingaard←▼C. Tanor

90'▲D. Oduro←▼M. Ingvartsen

FC Nordsjaelland substitutes

31Donyoh10Vingaard34Oduro1Jensen18Marcondes20Mouritsen25Mohammed

68'▲G. Fochive←▼J. Grønning

68'▲S. Frederiksen←▼M. Wichmann

78'▲S. Andersen←▼J. Kamper

Viborg substitutes

8Fochive25Frederiksen27Andersen6Poulsen19Mensah33John