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Al-Wasl FC vs Dibba Al-Fujairah — League #301 2026

Al-Wasl FC
Al-Wasl FC
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Dibba Al-Fujairah
Dibba Al-Fujairah
Salem Juma Awad 82'
Fabio Lima 51'
Lima 10'
8/30/2018League #301League #301 · Round 1Zabeel Stadium (Dubayy (Dubai))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Al-Wasl FC79%
×Draw14%
Dibba Al-Fujairah8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Wasl FC
2.66
Dibba Al-Fujairah
0.70

Al-Wasl FC creates 280% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 4 away

creates per match

Al-Wasl FC
2.31
Dibba Al-Fujairah
0.25

allows per match

Al-Wasl FC
1.15
Dibba Al-Fujairah
3.00

finishing

Al-Wasl FC+0.00on par
Dibba Al-Fujairah+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Wasl FC ↓

Dibba Al-Fujairah →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–17%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Al-Wasl FC or draw
92%
Al-Wasl FC or Dibba Al-Fujairah
86%
Draw or Dibba Al-Fujairah
21%

Winning margin

Al-Wasl FC wins by 2+
57%
Dibba Al-Fujairah wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Al-Wasl FC 1+ goals
93%
Al-Wasl FC 2+ goals
74%
Al-Wasl FC 3+ goals
49%
Dibba Al-Fujairah 1+ goals
50%
Dibba Al-Fujairah 2+ goals
16%
Dibba Al-Fujairah 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Al-Wasl FC (draw refunded)
91%
Dibba Al-Fujairah (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Wasl FC at home — creates 2.31, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

Dibba Al-Fujairah away — creates 0.25, concedes 3.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Wasl FC attack 2.31 + Dibba Al-Fujairah defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.66

Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.25 + Al-Wasl FC defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

Al-Wasl FC scores more
79%
level
14%
Dibba Al-Fujairah scores more
8%

Al-Wasl FC at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "Al-Wasl FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'
Lima↳ Caio
34'
Ahmed Mohammed← Humaid Aldhanhani
46'
Fabio Lima← Khaleil Khameis Salem
51'
Fabio Lima↳ Lima
55'
Yousuf Khalfan Naser← Ahmed Rashed Ali
73'
Hamad Al Balooshi← Ronaldo Mendes
82'
Salem Juma Awad↳ Khamis Esmail
83'
Abdulrahman Ali← Waheed Ismail
83'
Ahmed Ibrahim Hilal← Ahmed Khameis

Match Recap: Al-Wasl FC vs Dibba Al-Fujairah

Al-Wasl FC beat Dibba Al-Fujairah 3-0 in League #301 on August 30, 2018.

Goals: Lima (10'), Fabio Lima (51'), Salem Juma Awad (82').

The match was played at Zabeel Stadium (Dubayy (Dubai)).