Al-Wasl FC 4–2 Dibba Al-Fujairah: Result & Stats

Al-Wasl FC

FT

4 – 2

HT: 3 – 1

Dibba Al-Fujairah

F. Lima 53', 19'

B. Palacios Alzate 43'

Miguel Borja 39' (pen)

Saymon Cabral 76' (pen)

D. Coulibaly 25'

4/24/2026

League #301 · Round 23Zabeel Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Al-Wasl FC73%

×Draw15%

Dibba Al-Fujairah12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al-Wasl FCExpected goals in this matchDibba Al-Fujairah

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.92

1.13

Al-Wasl FC

2.92

Dibba Al-Fujairah

1.13

Al-Wasl FC creates 158% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 16 away

2.79

creates per match

1.00

1.26

allows per match

3.06

creates per match

Al-Wasl FC

2.79

Dibba Al-Fujairah

1.00

allows per match

Al-Wasl FC

1.26

Dibba Al-Fujairah

3.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al-Wasl FC+0.00on par

Dibba Al-Fujairah+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Wasl FC ↓

Dibba Al-Fujairah →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–16%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–05%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

Al-Wasl FC or draw

88%

Al-Wasl FC or Dibba Al-Fujairah

85%

Draw or Dibba Al-Fujairah

27%

Winning margin

Al-Wasl FC wins by 2+

53%

Dibba Al-Fujairah wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Al-Wasl FC 1+ goals

94%

Al-Wasl FC 2+ goals

78%

Al-Wasl FC 3+ goals

55%

Dibba Al-Fujairah 1+ goals

68%

Dibba Al-Fujairah 2+ goals

31%

Dibba Al-Fujairah 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Al-Wasl FC (draw refunded)

86%

Dibba Al-Fujairah (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Wasl FC at home — creates 2.79, concedes 1.26 · 19 matches

Dibba Al-Fujairah away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.06 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Wasl FC attack 2.79 + Dibba Al-Fujairah defence 3.06 → ÷2 → 2.92

Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 1.00 + Al-Wasl FC defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Al-Wasl FC scores more

73%

level

15%

Dibba Al-Fujairah scores more

12%

Al-Wasl FC at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Al-Wasl FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

F. Lima

Al-Wasl FC · M

9.9

Match Events

19'

F. Lima↳ Serginho

25'

D. Coulibaly↳ Andrigo

33'

Carlinhos

37'

Abdulla Saeed

39'

Miguel BorjaPenalty

41'

Khaled Alsaleh

43'

B. Palacios Alzate↳ Serginho

46'

S. Bouftini← Adryelson

46'

D. Ferreira← K. Alsaleh

46'

M. Cassama← A. Khamis

53'

F. Lima↳ N. Gimenez

62'

K. Al Baloushi← Carlinhos

63'

Habib YousufPenalty cancelled

71'

R. Omer← Andrigo

76'

Saymon CabralPenalty

77'

Fabio De Lima

80'

R. Tapia← F. Lima

85'

Hugo← A. Saleh

85'

E. Benedict← D. Coulibaly

86'

Renato Junior← Miguel Borja

90+1'

Rodrigo← B. Palacios Alzate

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Al-WaslDibba

Overview

70%Possession30%

27Total Shots11

12Corners4

10Fouls10

Shots

27Total Shots11

11On Target7

9Off Target1

7Blocked3

18Inside Box6

9Outside Box5

Passing

70%Possession30%

569Total Passes241

513Accurate Passes179

90%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

4Saves7

Discipline

10Fouls10

1Yellow Cards3

1Offsides0