New Mexico United II 0–2 Flatirons Rush

New Mexico United II

FT

0 – 2

Flatirons Rush

5/28/2023

USL League Two · Western Conference - 4High Noon Soccer Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

New Mexico United II37%

×Draw23%

Flatirons Rush40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

New Mexico United IIExpected goals in this matchFlatirons Rush

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.67

New Mexico United II

1.61

Flatirons Rush

1.67

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 30 away

1.69

creates per match

1.90

1.44

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

New Mexico United II

1.69

Flatirons Rush

1.90

allows per match

New Mexico United II

1.44

Flatirons Rush

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

New Mexico United II+0.00on par

Flatirons Rush+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

New Mexico United II ↓

Flatirons Rush →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

New Mexico United II or draw

60%

New Mexico United II or Flatirons Rush

77%

Draw or Flatirons Rush

63%

Winning margin

New Mexico United II wins by 2+

18%

Flatirons Rush wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

New Mexico United II 1+ goals

80%

New Mexico United II 2+ goals

48%

New Mexico United II 3+ goals

22%

Flatirons Rush 1+ goals

81%

Flatirons Rush 2+ goals

50%

Flatirons Rush 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

New Mexico United II (draw refunded)

48%

Flatirons Rush (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

New Mexico United II at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.44 · 16 matches

Flatirons Rush away — creates 1.90, concedes 1.53 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

New Mexico United II attack 1.69 + Flatirons Rush defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.61

Flatirons Rush attack 1.90 + New Mexico United II defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

New Mexico United II scores more

37%

level

23%

Flatirons Rush scores more

40%

Flatirons Rush at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Flatirons Rush will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: New Mexico United II 0–2 Flatirons Rush

Flatirons Rush beat New Mexico United II 2-0 in USL League Two on May 28, 2023.

The match was played at High Noon Soccer Complex in Las Cruces, New Mexico.

New Mexico United II vs Flatirons Rush — USL League Two 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

USL League Two: New Mexico United II 0–2 Flatirons Rush