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Flatirons Rush vs New Mexico United II — USL League Two 2018

Flatirons Rush
Flatirons Rush
FT
3 – 1
New Mexico United II
New Mexico United II
7/16/2022USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 73North Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Flatirons Rush34%
×Draw23%
New Mexico United II43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Flatirons Rush
1.52
New Mexico United II
1.72

New Mexico United II creates 13% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 18 away

creates per match

Flatirons Rush
1.48
New Mexico United II
1.72

allows per match

Flatirons Rush
1.72
New Mexico United II
1.56

finishing

Flatirons Rush+0.00on par
New Mexico United II+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Flatirons Rush ↓

New Mexico United II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Flatirons Rush or draw
57%
Flatirons Rush or New Mexico United II
77%
Draw or New Mexico United II
66%

Winning margin

Flatirons Rush wins by 2+
16%
New Mexico United II wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Flatirons Rush 1+ goals
78%
Flatirons Rush 2+ goals
45%
Flatirons Rush 3+ goals
20%
New Mexico United II 1+ goals
82%
New Mexico United II 2+ goals
51%
New Mexico United II 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Flatirons Rush (draw refunded)
45%
New Mexico United II (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Flatirons Rush at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.72 · 29 matches

New Mexico United II away — creates 1.72, concedes 1.56 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Flatirons Rush attack 1.48 + New Mexico United II defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.52

New Mexico United II attack 1.72 + Flatirons Rush defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Flatirons Rush scores more
34%
level
23%
New Mexico United II scores more
43%

New Mexico United II at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "New Mexico United II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: Flatirons Rush 3–1 New Mexico United II

Flatirons Rush beat New Mexico United II 3-1 in USL League Two on July 16, 2022.

The match was played at North Stadium in Westminster, Colorado.