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New Jersey Copa vs FA Euro New York — USL League Two 2018

New Jersey Copa
New Jersey Copa
FT
3 – 0
FA Euro New York
FA Euro New York
6/8/2022USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 27St. Joseph High School Soccer Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

New Jersey Copa48%
×Draw22%
FA Euro New York29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

New Jersey Copa
1.90
FA Euro New York
1.44

New Jersey Copa creates 32% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 25 away

creates per match

New Jersey Copa
1.55
FA Euro New York
1.16

allows per match

New Jersey Copa
1.71
FA Euro New York
2.24

finishing

New Jersey Copa+0.00on par
FA Euro New York+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

New Jersey Copa ↓

FA Euro New York →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

New Jersey Copa or draw
71%
New Jersey Copa or FA Euro New York
78%
Draw or FA Euro New York
52%

Winning margin

New Jersey Copa wins by 2+
27%
FA Euro New York wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

New Jersey Copa 1+ goals
85%
New Jersey Copa 2+ goals
56%
New Jersey Copa 3+ goals
29%
FA Euro New York 1+ goals
76%
FA Euro New York 2+ goals
42%
FA Euro New York 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

New Jersey Copa (draw refunded)
62%
FA Euro New York (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

New Jersey Copa at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.71 · 38 matches

FA Euro New York away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.24 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

New Jersey Copa attack 1.55 + FA Euro New York defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.90

FA Euro New York attack 1.16 + New Jersey Copa defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

New Jersey Copa scores more
48%
level
22%
FA Euro New York scores more
29%

New Jersey Copa at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "New Jersey Copa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: New Jersey Copa vs FA Euro New York

New Jersey Copa beat FA Euro New York 3-0 in USL League Two on June 8, 2022.

The match was played at St. Joseph High School Soccer Stadium in Metuchen.