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FA Euro New York vs New Jersey Copa — USL League Two 2018

FA Euro New York
FA Euro New York
FT
1 – 1
New Jersey Copa
New Jersey Copa
7/8/2021USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 47Calvert Vaux Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

FA Euro New York50%
×Draw24%
New Jersey Copa26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FA Euro New York
1.74
New Jersey Copa
1.19

FA Euro New York creates 46% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 40 away

creates per match

FA Euro New York
1.27
New Jersey Copa
1.15

allows per match

FA Euro New York
1.23
New Jersey Copa
2.20

finishing

FA Euro New York+0.00on par
New Jersey Copa+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FA Euro New York ↓

New Jersey Copa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

FA Euro New York or draw
74%
FA Euro New York or New Jersey Copa
76%
Draw or New Jersey Copa
50%

Winning margin

FA Euro New York wins by 2+
27%
New Jersey Copa wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

FA Euro New York 1+ goals
82%
FA Euro New York 2+ goals
52%
FA Euro New York 3+ goals
25%
New Jersey Copa 1+ goals
70%
New Jersey Copa 2+ goals
33%
New Jersey Copa 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

FA Euro New York (draw refunded)
66%
New Jersey Copa (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FA Euro New York at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.23 · 22 matches

New Jersey Copa away — creates 1.15, concedes 2.20 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FA Euro New York attack 1.27 + New Jersey Copa defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.74

New Jersey Copa attack 1.15 + FA Euro New York defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

FA Euro New York scores more
50%
level
24%
New Jersey Copa scores more
26%

FA Euro New York at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "FA Euro New York will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: FA Euro New York 1–1 New Jersey Copa

FA Euro New York and New Jersey Copa drew 1-1 in USL League Two on July 8, 2021.

The match was played at Calvert Vaux Park in Brooklyn, New York.