Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

New Jack vs Dauphins Noirs — Ligue 1 2019

New Jack
New Jack
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Dauphins Noirs
Dauphins Noirs
11/2/2025Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

New Jack42%
×Draw30%
Dauphins Noirs28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

New Jack
1.16
Dauphins Noirs
0.89

New Jack creates 30% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 77 away

creates per match

New Jack
0.96
Dauphins Noirs
0.78

allows per match

New Jack
1.00
Dauphins Noirs
1.36

finishing

New Jack+0.00on par
Dauphins Noirs+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

New Jack ↓

Dauphins Noirs →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

New Jack or draw
72%
New Jack or Dauphins Noirs
70%
Draw or Dauphins Noirs
58%

Winning margin

New Jack wins by 2+
18%
Dauphins Noirs wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

New Jack 1+ goals
69%
New Jack 2+ goals
32%
New Jack 3+ goals
11%
Dauphins Noirs 1+ goals
59%
Dauphins Noirs 2+ goals
22%
Dauphins Noirs 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

New Jack (draw refunded)
60%
Dauphins Noirs (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

New Jack at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.00 · 24 matches

Dauphins Noirs away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.36 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

New Jack attack 0.96 + Dauphins Noirs defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.16

Dauphins Noirs attack 0.78 + New Jack defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

New Jack scores more
42%
level
30%
Dauphins Noirs scores more
28%

New Jack at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "New Jack will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: New Jack 1–1 Dauphins Noirs

New Jack and Dauphins Noirs drew 1-1 in Ligue 1 on November 2, 2025.