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Dauphins Noirs vs New Jack — Ligue 1 2019

Dauphins Noirs
Dauphins Noirs
CANC
14:00
New Jack
New Jack
2/19/2025Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 17Stade Joseph Kabila Kabange

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Dauphins Noirs47%
×Draw31%
New Jack22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dauphins Noirs
1.17
New Jack
0.71

Dauphins Noirs creates 65% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 22 away

creates per match

Dauphins Noirs
1.06
New Jack
0.59

allows per match

Dauphins Noirs
0.84
New Jack
1.27

finishing

Dauphins Noirs+0.00on par
New Jack+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dauphins Noirs ↓

New Jack →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Dauphins Noirs or draw
78%
Dauphins Noirs or New Jack
69%
Draw or New Jack
53%

Winning margin

Dauphins Noirs wins by 2+
20%
New Jack wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Dauphins Noirs 1+ goals
69%
Dauphins Noirs 2+ goals
33%
Dauphins Noirs 3+ goals
11%
New Jack 1+ goals
51%
New Jack 2+ goals
16%
New Jack 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Dauphins Noirs (draw refunded)
68%
New Jack (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dauphins Noirs at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.84 · 69 matches

New Jack away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.27 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dauphins Noirs attack 1.06 + New Jack defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.17

New Jack attack 0.59 + Dauphins Noirs defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Dauphins Noirs scores more
47%
level
31%
New Jack scores more
22%

Dauphins Noirs at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Dauphins Noirs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Dauphins Noirs face New Jack (Ligue 1)

Ligue 1 returns with Dauphins Noirs hosting New Jack. Match starts February 19, 2025. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Dauphins Noirs host New Jack at Stade Joseph Kabila Kabange.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.