New Jack 1–1 Bukavu Dawa: Result & Stats | Ligue 1

New Jack

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Bukavu Dawa

4/14/2026

Ligue 1 · Round 21

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

New Jack50%

×Draw27%

Bukavu Dawa24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

New JackExpected goals in this matchBukavu Dawa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

0.91

New Jack

1.46

Bukavu Dawa

0.91

New Jack creates 60% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 27 away

0.96

creates per match

0.81

1.00

allows per match

1.96

creates per match

New Jack

0.96

Bukavu Dawa

0.81

allows per match

New Jack

1.00

Bukavu Dawa

1.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

New Jack+0.00on par

Bukavu Dawa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

New Jack ↓

Bukavu Dawa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

New Jack or draw

76%

New Jack or Bukavu Dawa

73%

Draw or Bukavu Dawa

50%

Winning margin

New Jack wins by 2+

25%

Bukavu Dawa wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

New Jack 1+ goals

77%

New Jack 2+ goals

43%

New Jack 3+ goals

18%

Bukavu Dawa 1+ goals

60%

Bukavu Dawa 2+ goals

23%

Bukavu Dawa 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

New Jack (draw refunded)

68%

Bukavu Dawa (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

New Jack at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.00 · 24 matches

Bukavu Dawa away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.96 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

New Jack attack 0.96 + Bukavu Dawa defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.46

Bukavu Dawa attack 0.81 + New Jack defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

New Jack scores more

50%

level

27%

Bukavu Dawa scores more

24%

New Jack at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "New Jack will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff