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Bukavu Dawa vs New Jack — Ligue 1 2019

Bukavu Dawa
Bukavu Dawa
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
New Jack
New Jack
11/13/2025Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Bukavu Dawa34%
×Draw33%
New Jack34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bukavu Dawa
0.90
New Jack
0.90

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 29 home / 22 away

creates per match

Bukavu Dawa
0.52
New Jack
0.59

allows per match

Bukavu Dawa
1.21
New Jack
1.27

finishing

Bukavu Dawa+0.00on par
New Jack+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bukavu Dawa ↓

New Jack →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–115%
0–27%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Bukavu Dawa or draw
66%
Bukavu Dawa or New Jack
67%
Draw or New Jack
66%

Winning margin

Bukavu Dawa wins by 2+
12%
New Jack wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Bukavu Dawa 1+ goals
59%
Bukavu Dawa 2+ goals
23%
Bukavu Dawa 3+ goals
6%
New Jack 1+ goals
59%
New Jack 2+ goals
23%
New Jack 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Bukavu Dawa (draw refunded)
50%
New Jack (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bukavu Dawa at home — creates 0.52, concedes 1.21 · 29 matches

New Jack away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.27 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bukavu Dawa attack 0.52 + New Jack defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 0.90

New Jack attack 0.59 + Bukavu Dawa defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 34%?"

Bukavu Dawa scores more
34%
level
33%
New Jack scores more
34%

Bukavu Dawa at 34% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 34% does not mean "Bukavu Dawa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bukavu Dawa 2 – 1 New Jack

Bukavu Dawa beat New Jack 2-1 in Ligue 1 on November 13, 2025.