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New Edubiase vs Elmina Sharks — Division One League 2025

New Edubiase
New Edubiase
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Elmina Sharks
Elmina Sharks
9/27/2025Division One LeagueDivision One League · Round 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

New Edubiase49%
×Draw31%
Elmina Sharks21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

New Edubiase
1.20
Elmina Sharks
0.67

New Edubiase creates 79% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

New Edubiase
1.13
Elmina Sharks
0.67

allows per match

New Edubiase
0.67
Elmina Sharks
1.27

finishing

New Edubiase+0.00on par
Elmina Sharks+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

New Edubiase ↓

Elmina Sharks →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–110%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–17%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

New Edubiase or draw
79%
New Edubiase or Elmina Sharks
69%
Draw or Elmina Sharks
51%

Winning margin

New Edubiase wins by 2+
22%
Elmina Sharks wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

New Edubiase 1+ goals
70%
New Edubiase 2+ goals
34%
New Edubiase 3+ goals
12%
Elmina Sharks 1+ goals
49%
Elmina Sharks 2+ goals
15%
Elmina Sharks 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

New Edubiase (draw refunded)
70%
Elmina Sharks (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

New Edubiase at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.67 · 15 matches

Elmina Sharks away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.27 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

New Edubiase attack 1.13 + Elmina Sharks defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.20

Elmina Sharks attack 0.67 + New Edubiase defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

New Edubiase scores more
49%
level
31%
Elmina Sharks scores more
21%

New Edubiase at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "New Edubiase will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: New Edubiase vs Elmina Sharks

New Edubiase and Elmina Sharks drew 1-1 in Division One League on September 27, 2025.