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Elmina Sharks vs New Edubiase — Division One League 2025

Elmina Sharks
Elmina Sharks
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
New Edubiase
New Edubiase
1/18/2026Division One LeagueDivision One League · Round 16

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Elmina Sharks47%
×Draw29%
New Edubiase24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Elmina Sharks
1.27
New Edubiase
0.83

Elmina Sharks creates 53% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

Elmina Sharks
1.33
New Edubiase
0.73

allows per match

Elmina Sharks
0.93
New Edubiase
1.20

finishing

Elmina Sharks+0.00on par
New Edubiase+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elmina Sharks ↓

New Edubiase →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Elmina Sharks or draw
76%
Elmina Sharks or New Edubiase
71%
Draw or New Edubiase
53%

Winning margin

Elmina Sharks wins by 2+
21%
New Edubiase wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Elmina Sharks 1+ goals
72%
Elmina Sharks 2+ goals
36%
Elmina Sharks 3+ goals
14%
New Edubiase 1+ goals
56%
New Edubiase 2+ goals
20%
New Edubiase 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Elmina Sharks (draw refunded)
66%
New Edubiase (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elmina Sharks at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.93 · 15 matches

New Edubiase away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elmina Sharks attack 1.33 + New Edubiase defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.27

New Edubiase attack 0.73 + Elmina Sharks defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Elmina Sharks scores more
47%
level
29%
New Edubiase scores more
24%

Elmina Sharks at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Elmina Sharks will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Elmina Sharks vs New Edubiase

Elmina Sharks and New Edubiase drew 1-1 in Division One League on January 18, 2026.