New Edubiase 0–2 Ashanti Gold: Result & Stats

New Edubiase

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Ashanti Gold

10/12/2025

Division One League · Round 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

New Edubiase36%

×Draw32%

Ashanti Gold32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

New EdubiaseExpected goals in this matchAshanti Gold

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.96

0.90

New Edubiase

0.96

Ashanti Gold

0.90

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

1.13

creates per match

1.13

0.67

allows per match

0.80

creates per match

New Edubiase

1.13

Ashanti Gold

1.13

allows per match

New Edubiase

0.67

Ashanti Gold

0.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

New Edubiase+0.00on par

Ashanti Gold+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

New Edubiase ↓

Ashanti Gold →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–114%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

New Edubiase or draw

68%

New Edubiase or Ashanti Gold

68%

Draw or Ashanti Gold

64%

Winning margin

New Edubiase wins by 2+

13%

Ashanti Gold wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

New Edubiase 1+ goals

62%

New Edubiase 2+ goals

25%

New Edubiase 3+ goals

7%

Ashanti Gold 1+ goals

59%

Ashanti Gold 2+ goals

23%

Ashanti Gold 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

New Edubiase (draw refunded)

52%

Ashanti Gold (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

New Edubiase at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.67 · 15 matches

Ashanti Gold away — creates 1.13, concedes 0.80 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

New Edubiase attack 1.13 + Ashanti Gold defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.96

Ashanti Gold attack 1.13 + New Edubiase defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

New Edubiase scores more

36%

level

32%

Ashanti Gold scores more

32%

New Edubiase at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "New Edubiase will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff