Ashanti Gold 0–0 New Edubiase: Result & Stats

Ashanti Gold

FT

0 – 0

New Edubiase

7/22/2015

Premier League · Round 23Len Clay Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Ashanti Gold71%

×Draw20%

New Edubiase10%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ashanti GoldExpected goals in this matchNew Edubiase

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

0.58

Ashanti Gold

1.98

New Edubiase

0.58

Ashanti Gold creates 241% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 5 away

1.76

creates per match

0.60

0.57

allows per match

2.20

creates per match

Ashanti Gold

1.76

New Edubiase

0.60

allows per match

Ashanti Gold

0.57

New Edubiase

2.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ashanti Gold+0.00on par

New Edubiase+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ashanti Gold ↓

New Edubiase →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–15%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–19%

1–23%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–19%

2–23%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Ashanti Gold or draw

90%

Ashanti Gold or New Edubiase

80%

Draw or New Edubiase

29%

Winning margin

Ashanti Gold wins by 2+

44%

New Edubiase wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Ashanti Gold 1+ goals

86%

Ashanti Gold 2+ goals

59%

Ashanti Gold 3+ goals

31%

New Edubiase 1+ goals

44%

New Edubiase 2+ goals

12%

New Edubiase 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Ashanti Gold (draw refunded)

88%

New Edubiase (draw refunded)

12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ashanti Gold at home — creates 1.76, concedes 0.57 · 46 matches

New Edubiase away — creates 0.60, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ashanti Gold attack 1.76 + New Edubiase defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.98

New Edubiase attack 0.60 + Ashanti Gold defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Ashanti Gold scores more

71%

level

20%

New Edubiase scores more

10%

Ashanti Gold at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Ashanti Gold will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff