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Nevėžis vs Trakai II — 1 Lyga 2026

Nevėžis
Nevėžis
FT
3 – 2
Trakai II
Trakai II
R. Lipnevicius 75'
N. Toklikishvili 63', 55'
E. Alisauskas 64', 9'
8/9/20191 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 19Kėdainių miesto stadionas (Kėdainiai)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Nevėžis50%
×Draw23%
Trakai II27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nevėžis
1.81
Trakai II
1.29

Nevėžis creates 40% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 70 away

creates per match

Nevėžis
1.80
Trakai II
1.47

allows per match

Nevėžis
1.12
Trakai II
1.81

finishing

Nevėžis+0.00on par
Trakai II+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nevėžis ↓

Trakai II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Nevėžis or draw
73%
Nevėžis or Trakai II
77%
Draw or Trakai II
50%

Winning margin

Nevėžis wins by 2+
27%
Trakai II wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Nevėžis 1+ goals
84%
Nevėžis 2+ goals
54%
Nevėžis 3+ goals
27%
Trakai II 1+ goals
72%
Trakai II 2+ goals
37%
Trakai II 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Nevėžis (draw refunded)
64%
Trakai II (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nevėžis at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.12 · 91 matches

Trakai II away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.81 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nevėžis attack 1.80 + Trakai II defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.81

Trakai II attack 1.47 + Nevėžis defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Nevėžis scores more
50%
level
23%
Trakai II scores more
27%

Nevėžis at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Nevėžis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'
E. Alisauskas
55'
N. Toklikishvili
63'
N. Toklikishvili
64'
E. Alisauskas
75'
R. Lipnevicius

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nevėžis vs Trakai II

Nevėžis beat Trakai II 3-2 in 1 Lyga on August 9, 2019.

Goals: E. Alisauskas (9', 64'), N. Toklikishvili (55', 63'), R. Lipnevicius (75').

The match was played at Kėdainių miesto stadionas (Kėdainiai).