Nevėžis 6–0 Lokomotyvas Radviliškis: Result & Stats

Nevėžis

FT

6 – 0

Lokomotyvas Radviliškis

7/6/2016

1 Lyga · Round 16Kėdainių miesto stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Nevėžis61%

×Draw20%

Lokomotyvas Radviliškis19%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NevėžisExpected goals in this matchLokomotyvas Radviliškis

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.17

1.13

Nevėžis

2.17

Lokomotyvas Radviliškis

1.13

Nevėžis creates 92% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 6 away

1.85

creates per match

1.17

1.08

allows per match

2.50

creates per match

Nevėžis

1.85

Lokomotyvas Radviliškis

1.17

allows per match

Nevėžis

1.08

Lokomotyvas Radviliškis

2.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nevėžis+0.00on par

Lokomotyvas Radviliškis+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nevėžis ↓

Lokomotyvas Radviliškis →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Nevėžis or draw

81%

Nevėžis or Lokomotyvas Radviliškis

80%

Draw or Lokomotyvas Radviliškis

39%

Winning margin

Nevėžis wins by 2+

38%

Lokomotyvas Radviliškis wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Nevėžis 1+ goals

89%

Nevėžis 2+ goals

64%

Nevėžis 3+ goals

36%

Lokomotyvas Radviliškis 1+ goals

68%

Lokomotyvas Radviliškis 2+ goals

31%

Lokomotyvas Radviliškis 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Nevėžis (draw refunded)

76%

Lokomotyvas Radviliškis (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nevėžis at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.08 · 98 matches

Lokomotyvas Radviliškis away — creates 1.17, concedes 2.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nevėžis attack 1.85 + Lokomotyvas Radviliškis defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.17

Lokomotyvas Radviliškis attack 1.17 + Nevėžis defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Nevėžis scores more

61%

level

20%

Lokomotyvas Radviliškis scores more

19%

Nevėžis at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Nevėžis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff