Lokomotyvas Radviliškis 1–1 Nevėžis: Result & Stats

Lokomotyvas Radviliškis

FT

1 – 1

Nevėžis

3/26/2016

1 Lyga · Round 1Vilniaus LFF stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Lokomotyvas Radviliškis31%

×Draw21%

Nevėžis48%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lokomotyvas RadviliškisExpected goals in this matchNevėžis

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

2.13

Lokomotyvas Radviliškis

1.68

Nevėžis

2.13

Nevėžis creates 27% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 97 away

2.00

creates per match

1.75

2.50

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Lokomotyvas Radviliškis

2.00

Nevėžis

1.75

allows per match

Lokomotyvas Radviliškis

2.50

Nevėžis

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lokomotyvas Radviliškis+0.00on par

Nevėžis+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotyvas Radviliškis ↓

Nevėžis →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–25%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Lokomotyvas Radviliškis or draw

52%

Lokomotyvas Radviliškis or Nevėžis

79%

Draw or Nevėžis

69%

Winning margin

Lokomotyvas Radviliškis wins by 2+

15%

Nevėžis wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Lokomotyvas Radviliškis 1+ goals

81%

Lokomotyvas Radviliškis 2+ goals

50%

Lokomotyvas Radviliškis 3+ goals

24%

Nevėžis 1+ goals

88%

Nevėžis 2+ goals

63%

Nevėžis 3+ goals

35%

Draw no bet

Lokomotyvas Radviliškis (draw refunded)

39%

Nevėžis (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotyvas Radviliškis at home — creates 2.00, concedes 2.50 · 6 matches

Nevėžis away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.36 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotyvas Radviliškis attack 2.00 + Nevėžis defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.68

Nevėžis attack 1.75 + Lokomotyvas Radviliškis defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Lokomotyvas Radviliškis scores more

31%

level

21%

Nevėžis scores more

48%

Nevėžis at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Nevėžis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff