Nevėžis 5–0 Jonava: Result & Stats | 1 Lyga

Nevėžis

FT

5 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Jonava

6/23/2023

1 Lyga · Round 14Kėdainių miesto stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Nevėžis47%

×Draw24%

Jonava29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NevėžisExpected goals in this matchJonava

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.22

Nevėžis

1.63

Jonava

1.22

Nevėžis creates 34% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 74 away

1.82

creates per match

1.32

1.12

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Nevėžis

1.82

Jonava

1.32

allows per match

Nevėžis

1.12

Jonava

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nevėžis+0.00on par

Jonava+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nevėžis ↓

Jonava →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Nevėžis or draw

71%

Nevėžis or Jonava

76%

Draw or Jonava

53%

Winning margin

Nevėžis wins by 2+

24%

Jonava wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Nevėžis 1+ goals

80%

Nevėžis 2+ goals

48%

Nevėžis 3+ goals

22%

Jonava 1+ goals

70%

Jonava 2+ goals

34%

Jonava 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Nevėžis (draw refunded)

62%

Jonava (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nevėžis at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.12 · 84 matches

Jonava away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.43 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nevėžis attack 1.82 + Jonava defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.63

Jonava attack 1.32 + Nevėžis defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Nevėžis scores more

47%

level

24%

Jonava scores more

29%

Nevėžis at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Nevėžis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff