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Jonava vs Nevėžis — 1 Lyga 2026

Jonava
Jonava
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Nevėžis
Nevėžis
11/4/20231 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 29Jonavos centrinis stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Jonava39%
×Draw24%
Nevėžis37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jonava
1.55
Nevėžis
1.49

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 74 home / 83 away

creates per match

Jonava
1.82
Nevėžis
1.57

allows per match

Jonava
1.41
Nevėžis
1.28

finishing

Jonava+0.00on par
Nevėžis+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jonava ↓

Nevėžis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Jonava or draw
63%
Jonava or Nevėžis
76%
Draw or Nevėžis
61%

Winning margin

Jonava wins by 2+
19%
Nevėžis wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Jonava 1+ goals
79%
Jonava 2+ goals
46%
Jonava 3+ goals
20%
Nevėžis 1+ goals
77%
Nevėžis 2+ goals
44%
Nevėžis 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Jonava (draw refunded)
52%
Nevėžis (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jonava at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.41 · 74 matches

Nevėžis away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.28 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jonava attack 1.82 + Nevėžis defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.55

Nevėžis attack 1.57 + Jonava defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Jonava scores more
39%
level
24%
Nevėžis scores more
37%

Jonava at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Jonava will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jonava vs Nevėžis

Jonava and Nevėžis drew 0-0 in 1 Lyga on November 4, 2023.

The match was played at Jonavos centrinis stadionas in Jonava.