Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Nevėžis vs Jonava — 1 Lyga 2026

Nevėžis
Nevėžis
FT
3 – 2
Jonava
Jonava
R. Lipnevicius 80'
A. Gegzna 52'
E. Kugys 37'
L. Stonkus 68'
P. Osauskas 1'
10/27/20191 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 30Kėdainių miesto stadionas (Kėdainiai)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Nevėžis49%
×Draw24%
Jonava27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nevėžis
1.68
Jonava
1.20

Nevėžis creates 40% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 72 away

creates per match

Nevėžis
1.86
Jonava
1.32

allows per match

Nevėžis
1.08
Jonava
1.49

finishing

Nevėžis+0.00on par
Jonava+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 55Under: 4555%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 57No: 4357%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nevėžis ↓

Jonava →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Nevėžis or draw
73%
Nevėžis or Jonava
76%
Draw or Jonava
51%

Winning margin

Nevėžis wins by 2+
26%
Jonava wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Nevėžis 1+ goals
81%
Nevėžis 2+ goals
50%
Nevėžis 3+ goals
24%
Jonava 1+ goals
70%
Jonava 2+ goals
34%
Jonava 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Nevėžis (draw refunded)
64%
Jonava (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nevėžis at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.08 · 97 matches

Jonava away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.49 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nevėžis attack 1.86 + Jonava defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.68

Jonava attack 1.32 + Nevėžis defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Nevėžis scores more
49%
level
24%
Jonava scores more
27%

Nevėžis at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Nevėžis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'
P. Osauskas
37'
E. Kugys
52'
A. Gegzna
68'
L. Stonkus
80'
R. Lipnevicius
85'
S. Cinikas

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1 Lyga: Nevėžis 3–2 Jonava

Nevėžis beat Jonava 3-2 in 1 Lyga on October 27, 2019.

Goals: P. Osauskas (1'), E. Kugys (37'), A. Gegzna (52'), L. Stonkus (68'), R. Lipnevicius (80').

The match was played at Kėdainių miesto stadionas (Kėdainiai).