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Neustrelitz vs Anker Wismar — Oberliga - Nordost-Nord 2020

Neustrelitz
Neustrelitz
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Anker Wismar
Anker Wismar
4/17/2026Oberliga - Nordost-NordOberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 25Parkstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Neustrelitz56%
×Draw20%
Anker Wismar23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Neustrelitz
2.20
Anker Wismar
1.35

Neustrelitz creates 63% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 44 away

creates per match

Neustrelitz
2.12
Anker Wismar
1.52

allows per match

Neustrelitz
1.19
Anker Wismar
2.27

finishing

Neustrelitz+0.00on par
Anker Wismar+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Neustrelitz ↓

Anker Wismar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Neustrelitz or draw
77%
Neustrelitz or Anker Wismar
80%
Draw or Anker Wismar
44%

Winning margin

Neustrelitz wins by 2+
35%
Anker Wismar wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Neustrelitz 1+ goals
89%
Neustrelitz 2+ goals
64%
Neustrelitz 3+ goals
37%
Anker Wismar 1+ goals
74%
Anker Wismar 2+ goals
39%
Anker Wismar 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Neustrelitz (draw refunded)
71%
Anker Wismar (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Neustrelitz at home — creates 2.12, concedes 1.19 · 81 matches

Anker Wismar away — creates 1.52, concedes 2.27 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Neustrelitz attack 2.12 + Anker Wismar defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 2.20

Anker Wismar attack 1.52 + Neustrelitz defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Neustrelitz scores more
56%
level
20%
Anker Wismar scores more
23%

Neustrelitz at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Neustrelitz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Nordost-Nord: Neustrelitz 1–0 Anker Wismar

Neustrelitz beat Anker Wismar 1-0 in Oberliga - Nordost-Nord on April 17, 2026.

The match was played at Parkstadion in Neustrelitz.