Anker Wismar 4–1 Neustrelitz: Result & Stats

Anker Wismar

FT

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Neustrelitz

3/22/2025

Oberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 17Kurt-Bürger-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Anker Wismar45%

×Draw23%

Neustrelitz32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Anker WismarExpected goals in this matchNeustrelitz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.84

1.52

Anker Wismar

1.84

Neustrelitz

1.52

Anker Wismar creates 21% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 81 away

2.04

creates per match

1.47

1.58

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Anker Wismar

2.04

Neustrelitz

1.47

allows per match

Anker Wismar

1.58

Neustrelitz

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Anker Wismar+0.00on par

Neustrelitz+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Anker Wismar ↓

Neustrelitz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Anker Wismar or draw

68%

Anker Wismar or Neustrelitz

77%

Draw or Neustrelitz

55%

Winning margin

Anker Wismar wins by 2+

25%

Neustrelitz wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Anker Wismar 1+ goals

84%

Anker Wismar 2+ goals

55%

Anker Wismar 3+ goals

28%

Neustrelitz 1+ goals

78%

Neustrelitz 2+ goals

45%

Neustrelitz 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Anker Wismar (draw refunded)

59%

Neustrelitz (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Anker Wismar at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.58 · 45 matches

Neustrelitz away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.64 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Anker Wismar attack 2.04 + Neustrelitz defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.84

Neustrelitz attack 1.47 + Anker Wismar defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Anker Wismar scores more

45%

level

23%

Neustrelitz scores more

32%

Anker Wismar at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Anker Wismar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff