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Neuchatel Xamax FC vs Grasshoppers — Super League 2018

Neuchatel Xamax FC
Neuchatel Xamax FC
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Grasshoppers
Grasshoppers
11/11/2018Super LeagueSuper League · Round 14La Maladiere

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Neuchatel Xamax FC40%
×Draw26%
Grasshoppers34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Neuchatel Xamax FC
1.43
Grasshoppers
1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 36 home / 114 away

creates per match

Neuchatel Xamax FC
1.14
Grasshoppers
0.96

allows per match

Neuchatel Xamax FC
1.67
Grasshoppers
1.72

finishing

Neuchatel Xamax FC+0.00on par
Grasshoppers+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Neuchatel Xamax FC ↓

Grasshoppers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Neuchatel Xamax FC or draw
66%
Neuchatel Xamax FC or Grasshoppers
74%
Draw or Grasshoppers
60%

Winning margin

Neuchatel Xamax FC wins by 2+
19%
Grasshoppers wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Neuchatel Xamax FC 1+ goals
76%
Neuchatel Xamax FC 2+ goals
42%
Neuchatel Xamax FC 3+ goals
17%
Grasshoppers 1+ goals
73%
Grasshoppers 2+ goals
38%
Grasshoppers 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Neuchatel Xamax FC (draw refunded)
54%
Grasshoppers (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Neuchatel Xamax FC at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.67 · 36 matches

Grasshoppers away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.72 · 114 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Neuchatel Xamax FC attack 1.14 + Grasshoppers defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.43

Grasshoppers attack 0.96 + Neuchatel Xamax FC defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Neuchatel Xamax FC scores more
40%
level
26%
Grasshoppers scores more
34%

Neuchatel Xamax FC at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Neuchatel Xamax FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Neuchatel Xamax FC 2–3 Grasshoppers

Grasshoppers beat Neuchatel Xamax FC 3-2 in Super League on November 11, 2018.

The match was played at La Maladiere in Neuchatel.