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Grasshoppers vs Neuchatel Xamax FC — Super League 2018

Grasshoppers
Grasshoppers
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Neuchatel Xamax FC
Neuchatel Xamax FC
2/17/2019Super LeagueSuper League · Round 21Letzigrund

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Grasshoppers49%
×Draw23%
Neuchatel Xamax FC28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Grasshoppers
1.77
Neuchatel Xamax FC
1.28

Grasshoppers creates 38% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 36 away

creates per match

Grasshoppers
1.51
Neuchatel Xamax FC
1.00

allows per match

Grasshoppers
1.56
Neuchatel Xamax FC
2.03

finishing

Grasshoppers+0.00on par
Neuchatel Xamax FC+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grasshoppers ↓

Neuchatel Xamax FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Grasshoppers or draw
72%
Grasshoppers or Neuchatel Xamax FC
77%
Draw or Neuchatel Xamax FC
51%

Winning margin

Grasshoppers wins by 2+
27%
Neuchatel Xamax FC wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Grasshoppers 1+ goals
83%
Grasshoppers 2+ goals
53%
Grasshoppers 3+ goals
26%
Neuchatel Xamax FC 1+ goals
72%
Neuchatel Xamax FC 2+ goals
37%
Neuchatel Xamax FC 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Grasshoppers (draw refunded)
64%
Neuchatel Xamax FC (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grasshoppers at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.56 · 113 matches

Neuchatel Xamax FC away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.03 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grasshoppers attack 1.51 + Neuchatel Xamax FC defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.77

Neuchatel Xamax FC attack 1.00 + Grasshoppers defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Grasshoppers scores more
49%
level
23%
Neuchatel Xamax FC scores more
28%

Grasshoppers at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Grasshoppers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Grasshoppers vs Neuchatel Xamax FC

Neuchatel Xamax FC beat Grasshoppers 1-0 in Super League on February 17, 2019.

The match was played at Letzigrund in Zurich.