Neuchatel Xamax FC 0–0 FC Sion: Result & Stats

Neuchatel Xamax FC

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

FC Sion

3/8/2024

League #208 · Round 25Stade de la Maladière

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Neuchatel Xamax FC35%

×Draw32%

FC Sion33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Neuchatel Xamax FCExpected goals in this matchFC Sion

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.97

0.94

Neuchatel Xamax FC

0.97

FC Sion

0.94

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 3 away

1.60

creates per match

0.67

1.20

allows per match

0.33

creates per match

Neuchatel Xamax FC

1.60

FC Sion

0.67

allows per match

Neuchatel Xamax FC

1.20

FC Sion

0.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Neuchatel Xamax FC+0.00on par

FC Sion+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Neuchatel Xamax FC ↓

FC Sion →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–114%

0–27%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–114%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Neuchatel Xamax FC or draw

67%

Neuchatel Xamax FC or FC Sion

68%

Draw or FC Sion

65%

Winning margin

Neuchatel Xamax FC wins by 2+

13%

FC Sion wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Neuchatel Xamax FC 1+ goals

62%

Neuchatel Xamax FC 2+ goals

25%

Neuchatel Xamax FC 3+ goals

7%

FC Sion 1+ goals

61%

FC Sion 2+ goals

24%

FC Sion 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Neuchatel Xamax FC (draw refunded)

51%

FC Sion (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Neuchatel Xamax FC at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.20 · 10 matches

FC Sion away — creates 0.67, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Neuchatel Xamax FC attack 1.60 + FC Sion defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.97

FC Sion attack 0.67 + Neuchatel Xamax FC defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Neuchatel Xamax FC scores more

35%

level

32%

FC Sion scores more

33%

Neuchatel Xamax FC at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Neuchatel Xamax FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff