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FC Sion vs Neuchatel Xamax FC — Friendlies Clubs 2026

FC Sion
FC Sion
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Neuchatel Xamax FC
Neuchatel Xamax FC
7/10/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Stade du Bouveret

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

FC Sion60%
×Draw18%
Neuchatel Xamax FC22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Sion
2.63
Neuchatel Xamax FC
1.56

FC Sion creates 69% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 11 away

creates per match

FC Sion
2.70
Neuchatel Xamax FC
1.73

allows per match

FC Sion
1.40
Neuchatel Xamax FC
2.55

finishing

FC Sion+0.00on par
Neuchatel Xamax FC+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Sion ↓

Neuchatel Xamax FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

FC Sion or draw
78%
FC Sion or Neuchatel Xamax FC
82%
Draw or Neuchatel Xamax FC
40%

Winning margin

FC Sion wins by 2+
39%
Neuchatel Xamax FC wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

FC Sion 1+ goals
93%
FC Sion 2+ goals
73%
FC Sion 3+ goals
48%
Neuchatel Xamax FC 1+ goals
79%
Neuchatel Xamax FC 2+ goals
46%
Neuchatel Xamax FC 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

FC Sion (draw refunded)
73%
Neuchatel Xamax FC (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Sion at home — creates 2.70, concedes 1.40 · 10 matches

Neuchatel Xamax FC away — creates 1.73, concedes 2.55 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Sion attack 2.70 + Neuchatel Xamax FC defence 2.55 → ÷2 → 2.63

Neuchatel Xamax FC attack 1.73 + FC Sion defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

FC Sion scores more
60%
level
18%
Neuchatel Xamax FC scores more
22%

FC Sion at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "FC Sion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Sion vs Neuchatel Xamax FC

Neuchatel Xamax FC beat FC Sion 3-0 in Friendlies Clubs on July 10, 2024.

The match was played at Stade du Bouveret in Bouveret.