Neuchatel Xamax FC 0–3 FC Basel 1893

Neuchatel Xamax FC

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

FC Basel 1893

8/24/2019

Super League · Round 5Stade de la Maladière

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Neuchatel Xamax FC31%

×Draw24%

FC Basel 189346%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Neuchatel Xamax FCExpected goals in this matchFC Basel 1893

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.69

Neuchatel Xamax FC

1.34

FC Basel 1893

1.69

FC Basel 1893 creates 26% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 146 away

1.18

creates per match

1.64

1.73

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

Neuchatel Xamax FC

1.18

FC Basel 1893

1.64

allows per match

Neuchatel Xamax FC

1.73

FC Basel 1893

1.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Neuchatel Xamax FC+0.00on par

FC Basel 1893+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Neuchatel Xamax FC ↓

FC Basel 1893 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Neuchatel Xamax FC or draw

54%

Neuchatel Xamax FC or FC Basel 1893

76%

Draw or FC Basel 1893

69%

Winning margin

Neuchatel Xamax FC wins by 2+

13%

FC Basel 1893 wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Neuchatel Xamax FC 1+ goals

74%

Neuchatel Xamax FC 2+ goals

39%

Neuchatel Xamax FC 3+ goals

15%

FC Basel 1893 1+ goals

82%

FC Basel 1893 2+ goals

50%

FC Basel 1893 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Neuchatel Xamax FC (draw refunded)

40%

FC Basel 1893 (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Neuchatel Xamax FC at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.73 · 33 matches

FC Basel 1893 away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.51 · 146 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Neuchatel Xamax FC attack 1.18 + FC Basel 1893 defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.34

FC Basel 1893 attack 1.64 + Neuchatel Xamax FC defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Neuchatel Xamax FC scores more

31%

level

24%

FC Basel 1893 scores more

46%

FC Basel 1893 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "FC Basel 1893 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff