Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

FC Basel 1893 vs Neuchatel Xamax FC — Super League 2018

FC Basel 1893
FC Basel 1893
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Neuchatel Xamax FC
Neuchatel Xamax FC
7/4/2020Super LeagueSuper League · Round 28St. Jakob-Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

FC Basel 189357%
×Draw22%
Neuchatel Xamax FC20%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Basel 1893
1.88
Neuchatel Xamax FC
1.02

FC Basel 1893 creates 84% more chances

Season form · 142 home / 33 away

creates per match

FC Basel 1893
1.85
Neuchatel Xamax FC
0.97

allows per match

FC Basel 1893
1.08
Neuchatel Xamax FC
1.91

finishing

FC Basel 1893+0.00on par
Neuchatel Xamax FC+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Basel 1893 ↓

Neuchatel Xamax FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

FC Basel 1893 or draw
80%
FC Basel 1893 or Neuchatel Xamax FC
78%
Draw or Neuchatel Xamax FC
43%

Winning margin

FC Basel 1893 wins by 2+
33%
Neuchatel Xamax FC wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

FC Basel 1893 1+ goals
85%
FC Basel 1893 2+ goals
56%
FC Basel 1893 3+ goals
29%
Neuchatel Xamax FC 1+ goals
64%
Neuchatel Xamax FC 2+ goals
27%
Neuchatel Xamax FC 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

FC Basel 1893 (draw refunded)
74%
Neuchatel Xamax FC (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Basel 1893 at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.08 · 142 matches

Neuchatel Xamax FC away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.91 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Basel 1893 attack 1.85 + Neuchatel Xamax FC defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.88

Neuchatel Xamax FC attack 0.97 + FC Basel 1893 defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

FC Basel 1893 scores more
57%
level
22%
Neuchatel Xamax FC scores more
20%

FC Basel 1893 at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "FC Basel 1893 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Basel 1893 vs Neuchatel Xamax FC

FC Basel 1893 beat Neuchatel Xamax FC 2-0 in Super League on July 4, 2020.

The match was played at St. Jakob-Park in Basel.