Netherlands W 2–0 South Africa W: Result & Stats

Netherlands W

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

South Africa W

L. Beerensteyn 68'

J. Roord 9'

8/6/2023

World Cup - Women · Round of 16Sydney Football Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Netherlands W68%

×Draw19%

South Africa W13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Netherlands WExpected goals in this matchSouth Africa W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

0.80

Netherlands W

2.13

South Africa W

0.80

Netherlands W creates 166% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

2.00

creates per match

1.00

0.60

allows per match

2.25

creates per match

Netherlands W

2.00

South Africa W

1.00

allows per match

Netherlands W

0.60

South Africa W

2.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Netherlands W+0.00on par

South Africa W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Netherlands W ↓

South Africa W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Netherlands W or draw

87%

Netherlands W or South Africa W

81%

Draw or South Africa W

32%

Winning margin

Netherlands W wins by 2+

43%

South Africa W wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Netherlands W 1+ goals

88%

Netherlands W 2+ goals

63%

Netherlands W 3+ goals

35%

South Africa W 1+ goals

55%

South Africa W 2+ goals

19%

South Africa W 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Netherlands W (draw refunded)

84%

South Africa W (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Netherlands W at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

South Africa W away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Netherlands W attack 2.00 + South Africa W defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.13

South Africa W attack 1.00 + Netherlands W defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Netherlands W scores more

68%

level

19%

South Africa W scores more

13%

Netherlands W at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Netherlands W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

D. van Domselaar

Netherlands W · G

8.6

Match Events

9'

J. Roord

30'

W. Shongwe← J. Seoposenwe

42'

T. Makhubela← B. Mbane

56'

Lieke MartensGoal cancelled

67'

Danielle van de Donk

68'

L. Beerensteyn↳ L. Martens

75'

D. Egurrola← D. van de Donk

88'

K. Casparij← E. Brugts

89'

L. Wilms← V. Pelova

90+3'

K. Snoeijs← J. Roord

90+3'

J. Baijings← L. Martens

90+2'

N. Cesane← H. Magaia

90+2'

M. Kgadiete← L. Motlhalo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NetherlandsSouth

Overview

70%Possession30%

14Total Shots13

6Corners5

9Fouls12

Shots

14Total Shots13

6On Target7

4Off Target5

4Blocked1

10Inside Box6

4Outside Box7

Passing

70%Possession30%

666Total Passes277

552Accurate Passes167

83%Pass Accuracy60%

Goalkeeping

7Saves4

Discipline

9Fouls12

1Yellow Cards0

3Offsides0